{
  "dataset": "forecast-resolution-scorecard",
  "record": {
    "availability": "ok",
    "freshness": "current",
    "coverage": "measurable",
    "headline": "current",
    "failureCode": ""
  },
  "attemptedAt": "2026-09-28",
  "capturedAt": "2026-09-28",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-27T06:05:24.102Z",
  "measurementAgeHours": 23,
  "staleAfterHours": 36,
  "source": "docs/snapshots/crawlable-live-pulse-2026-09-28.json",
  "license": "https://www.worldmonitor.app/docs/terms",
  "scoreConvention": "Lower Brier and lower log score are better. The published delta is the market Brier minus the forecast Brier, and lower is better, so a negative delta means the market scored better.",
  "headlineCohort": {
    "scored": 223,
    "excludedScored": 381,
    "excludedOrigins": [
      "bet_engine",
      "state_derived"
    ],
    "definition": "every scored entry except those whose generationOrigin is listed in excludedOrigins; an absent origin is filed as unknown and is included"
  },
  "pooledPopulations": {
    "calibration": "all-scored-entries",
    "vsMarketSkill": "all-scored-entries",
    "overall": "all-scored-entries"
  },
  "confidenceIntervals": {
    "published": false,
    "trackedIn": "https://github.com/koala73/worldmonitor/issues/7072"
  },
  "horizonProjections": {
    "scored": false,
    "trackedIn": "https://github.com/koala73/worldmonitor/issues/7075"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "generatedAt": 1790489124102,
    "rollingWindowDays": 180,
    "methodology": "Brier/log score over resolved YES/NO published forecast windows; VOID and pending entries are counted for coverage but excluded from accuracy math.",
    "totals": {
      "entries": 1153,
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      "pendingJudge": 98,
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      "publicationCoverage": 0.523851
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      {
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      {
        "domain": "geopolitical",
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      {
        "domain": "infrastructure",
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        "voidRate": 0.876404,
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      {
        "domain": "market",
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      {
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        "domain": "political",
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    "byGenerationOrigin": [
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      {
        "generationOrigin": "legacy_detector",
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        "voidRate": 0.502326,
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      {
        "generationOrigin": "state_derived",
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        "voidRate": 0.896226,
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      {
        "generationOrigin": "unknown",
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    ],
    "calibration": [
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        "bucket": "0-10",
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        "predictedMean": 0.06,
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      {
        "bucket": "10-20",
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      {
        "bucket": "20-30",
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      {
        "bucket": "30-40",
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        "predictedMean": 0.352255,
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        "brier": 0.227084
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      {
        "bucket": "40-50",
        "minProbability": 0.4,
        "maxProbability": 0.5,
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        "predictedMean": 0.411825,
        "realizedRate": 0.388889,
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      {
        "bucket": "50-60",
        "minProbability": 0.5,
        "maxProbability": 0.6,
        "count": 34,
        "predictedMean": 0.528794,
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      {
        "bucket": "60-70",
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      {
        "bucket": "70-80",
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      {
        "bucket": "80-90",
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      {
        "bucket": "90-100",
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        "brier": 0.0049
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    ],
    "vsMarketSkill": {
      "count": 97,
      "forecastBrier": 0.147037,
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      "brierDelta": -0.079293
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    "degraded": false,
    "stale": false,
    "error": "",
    "skill": {
      "count": 223,
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      "logScore": 0.395454,
      "excludedScored": 381,
      "excludedOrigins": [
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        "state_derived"
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    }
  }
}