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    CBK 2021 Climate Guidance & IFC EDGE Actuarial Modeler

    CBK Climate Risk & ESG Stress Test Cockpit

    Evaluate climate shock impacts on SACCO loan portfolios, IFRS 9 ECL provisions, and IFC EDGE green mortgage refinancing qualification.

    Portfolio Actuarial Variables

    CBK Regulatory Compliance Tier
    High RiskStatus: Action Required
    Physical Haircut Impact

    KES 131.25M

    Agri & real estate collateral devaluation

    Transition Risk DTI Penalty

    KES 60.00M

    Energy & carbon cost repayment penalty

    Climate-Adjusted IFRS 9 ECL

    KES 341.25M

    +127.5% vs baseline provision

    IFC Green Refinancing Eligible

    KES 480.0M

    Saves KES 12.00M p.a. @ 2.5% discount

    Actuarial Governance Directives:

    • 1Strong IFC green refinancing position: KES 480.0M eligible for KMRC green mortgage tranches.
    • 2Establish a supplementary KES 191.25M climate ECL reserve buffer to prevent SASRA solvency ratio erosion.