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Taiwan Country Instability Index

Taiwan's Country Instability Index is 34/100 · Normal, down 1 point over a 24-hour comparison window, as of .

CII measures current stress. World Monitor's separate Country Resilience Index measures Taiwan's longer-term structural capacity.

Official name: Republic of China. Wikidata identity record.

Current signal

Taiwan instability monitor

Published pulse

Instability combines current information, unrest, conflict and security-mobility signals. It is separate from structural resilience; do not combine the scores.

Instability score34Normal
24-hour comparison-window movementFalling -1
Travel advisory inputExercise Normal Precautions
OFAC designations in feed34 designated entities
Open Taiwan on the live map →

Recent developments in Taiwan

Taiwan's Country Instability Index is 34/100 · Normal, down 1 point over a 24-hour comparison window, as of . Reporting captured in the same window is listed below.

Country brief

Outlook

A Polymarket market on whether Puma Shen will win the next Taipei Mayor election is priced Yes at 19% as of Sep 28, 2026, closing Nov 29, 2026. [E5]

A Polymarket market on whether China will invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027 is priced Yes at 13% as of Sep 28, 2026, closing Jan 1, 2028. [E8]

Watch items

It remains to be seen whether the US federal government will take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, a market that closes Jan 1, 2027. [E6]

The outcome of the Polymarket market on whether China will invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027 is unresolved, closing Jan 1, 2028. [E8]

World Monitor data cited

Automated summary of 3 World Monitor data points, generated .

  1. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-28: plaAircraftSorties: 3; planShips: 5; officialShips: 4; medianLineCrossings: 1; adizEntries: 1 military source
  2. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-27: plaAircraftSorties: 2; planShips: 5; officialShips: 6 military source
  3. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-26: plaAircraftSorties: 5; planShips: 6; officialShips: 5; medianLineCrossings: 1; adizEntries: 1 military source
  4. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-25: plaAircraftSorties: 2; planShips: 6; officialShips: 5; adizEntries: 1 military source
  5. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-24: plaAircraftSorties: 10; planShips: 6; officialShips: 6; medianLineCrossings: 5; adizEntries: 5 military source
  6. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-23: plaAircraftSorties: 10; planShips: 6; officialShips: 6; medianLineCrossings: 9; adizEntries: 9 military source
  7. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-22: plaAircraftSorties: 4; planShips: 6; officialShips: 3; medianLineCrossings: 4; adizEntries: 4 military source
  8. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-21: plaAircraftSorties: 4; planShips: 7; officialShips: 4; medianLineCrossings: 3; adizEntries: 3 military source
  9. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-20: plaAircraftSorties: 5; planShips: 11; officialShips: 6; medianLineCrossings: 5; adizEntries: 5 military source
  10. Cross-Strait activity 2026-09-19: plaAircraftSorties: 20; planShips: 11; officialShips: 3; medianLineCrossings: 13; adizEntries: 13 military source

Structural resilience snapshot

RankNot ranked
Overall score—
Dimension coverage38%
ConfidenceLow

World Monitor does not publish a resilience score for Taiwan because it does not meet the published ranking eligibility criteria.

Taiwan resilience analysis

World Monitor does not publish a resilience score or rank for Taiwan because it does not meet the published ranking eligibility criteria. Officially Republic of China. Taiwan is included separately in the rankable universe. Ranked comparisons use East Asia and the Pacific peers rather than other unpublished pages. The snapshot records Taiwan as TW.

Why Taiwan is unpublished

Taiwan's coverage is 38% and imputation share is 42%, so the snapshot is low-confidence.

Source inventory gaps

Financial-system exposure, Governance and institutions, Health and public services, Logistics and supply chains, Education capacity, External-debt coverage, Liquid-reserve adequacy, and State continuity have no usable observed series. Those slots depend on BIS, World Bank IDS, FATF, World Bank WGI, WHO, World Bank, UCDP, and UNHCR, which do not contribute observed series for those dimensions. State continuity is marked source unavailable in this snapshot. Education capacity, External-debt coverage, and Liquid-reserve adequacy are tagged unmonitored because the source does not cover Taiwan.

What the snapshot does cover

Observed evidence is present for Cyber and digital capacity (100%), Import concentration (100%), Macro-fiscal position (95%), Border security (86%), Social cohesion (76%), and Fiscal space (65%). Input coverage is 38% and imputation share is 42%.

Dimension evidence inventory

Showing 12 of 21 active dimensions, weakest evidence first; 2 more at full coverage; 7 omitted for brevity.

Core infrastructure and Energy system resilience are observed but below the 50% coverage a supported reading needs, so they are recorded here without counting as supported readings.

Nearest ranked comparators

Nearest ranked comparators: Samoa, Australia, Brunei, New Zealand. Ranked comparisons in East Asia and the Pacific: Samoa, Australia, Brunei, New Zealand, Solomon Islands. Links do not use unpublished scores.

Tracked crisis context

Taiwan has no dedicated crisis tracker; the 14 trackers cover selected crises. That is a coverage limit, not a statement about risk.

Reading limits

Evidence comes from the August 29, 2026 snapshot. Taiwan coverage is 38% with imputation share 42%. No score is published.

Questions about Taiwan

What is Taiwan's Country Instability Index?

Taiwan's Country Instability Index is 34/100 (Normal), down 1 point over a 24-hour comparison window, as of Sep 28, 2026, 4:51 AM UTC.

What is Taiwan's resilience score?

No resilience score or rank is published for Taiwan. Taiwan's published rank would require coverage of at least 65%, no low-confidence flag, and either a population of at least 200,000 or coverage of at least 85%. Low confidence for Taiwan means coverage falls below 55% or imputation share exceeds 40%.

What evidence is available for Taiwan?

Observed evidence is present for Cyber and digital capacity (100%), Import concentration (100%), Macro-fiscal position (95%), Border security (86%), Social cohesion (76%), and Fiscal space (65%). Input coverage is 38% and imputation share is 42%.

How should readers use Taiwan's page?

Use the evidence inventory and nearest ranked comparators with the live monitor. A missing score does not mean risk is absent.

Related chokepoint trackers

How to read this page

The 0-100 index records the August 29, 2026 snapshot. See the Country Resilience Index methodology for dimensions, sources and confidence rules. Published revisions that affect Taiwan are in the corrections log.

This 2026-08-29 snapshot applies domain design weights inside pillar aggregation. Earlier published CRI numbers used coverage-only member aggregation and are not directly comparable.

Use this dated reference with the live map for active alerts, conflict, market and energy signals. Neither score on this page is a forecast; where World Monitor does forecast, the graded record is on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Download: resilience.json. Source: World Monitor Country Resilience Index snapshot, August 29, 2026. Methodology: Country Resilience Index.

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