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Country · CU

Cuba Country Instability Index

Cuba's Country Instability Index is 36/100 · Normal, unchanged over a 24-hour comparison window, as of .

CII measures current stress. World Monitor's separate Country Resilience Index measures Cuba's longer-term structural capacity.

Official name: Republic of Cuba. Wikidata identity record.

Current signal

Cuba instability monitor

Published pulse

Instability combines current information, unrest, conflict and security-mobility signals. It is separate from structural resilience; do not combine the scores.

Instability score36Normal
24-hour comparison-window movementUnchanged
Travel advisory inputExercise Increased Caution
OFAC designations in feed120 designated entities
Open Cuba on the live map →

Recent developments in Cuba

Cuba's Country Instability Index is 36/100 · Normal, unchanged over a 24-hour comparison window, as of . Reporting captured in the same window is listed below.

Country brief

What this means for Cuba

Cuba's denunciation of US pressure comes as the country is linked to 120 US OFAC and Canada SEMA sanctions designations. [4][E3]

Key risks

Cuba is linked to 120 US OFAC and Canada SEMA sanctions designations, which could increase economic pressure. [E3]

Outlook

A Polymarket market related to Cuba, "US strike on Cuba by December 31?", is priced Yes at 15% on Sep 28, 2026; it closes Jan 1, 2027. [E5]

A Polymarket market related to Cuba, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?", is priced Yes at 16% on Sep 28, 2026; it closes Jan 1, 2027. [E6]

Watch items

The question of whether a peaceful transition in Cuba is possible remains unresolved. [2]

The outcome of the Polymarket market "US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?" is pending. [E7]

World Monitor data cited

Automated summary of 2 cited reports and 4 World Monitor data points, generated .

Structural resilience snapshot

RankNot ranked
Overall score—
Dimension coverage58%
ConfidenceStandard

World Monitor does not publish a resilience score for Cuba because it does not meet the published ranking eligibility criteria.

Cuba resilience analysis

World Monitor does not publish a resilience score or rank for Cuba because it does not meet the published ranking eligibility criteria. Officially Republic of Cuba. Cuba is in the rankable universe as a UN member. Ranked comparisons use Latin America and the Caribbean peers rather than other unpublished pages. The snapshot records Cuba as CU.

Why Cuba is unpublished

Cuba's coverage is 58%, below the 65% ranking floor.

Source inventory gaps

Macro-fiscal position, External-debt coverage, Fiscal space, and Liquid-reserve adequacy have no usable observed series. Those slots depend on IMF and World Bank, which do not contribute observed series for those dimensions. External-debt coverage, Fiscal space, and Liquid-reserve adequacy are tagged unmonitored because the source does not cover Cuba.

What the snapshot does cover

Observed evidence is present for Border security (100%), Cyber and digital capacity (100%), Governance and institutions (100%), Health and public services (100%), Import concentration (100%), and State continuity (100%). Input coverage is 58% and imputation share is 17%.

Dimension evidence inventory

Showing 12 of 21 active dimensions, weakest evidence first; 7 more at full coverage; 2 omitted for brevity.

Financial-system exposure and Currency and external balance are observed but below the 50% coverage a supported reading needs, so they are recorded here without counting as supported readings.

Nearest ranked comparators

Nearest ranked comparators: Bahamas, Bolivia, Honduras, Guatemala. Ranked comparisons in Latin America and the Caribbean: Bahamas, Bolivia, Honduras, Guatemala, Argentina. Links do not use unpublished scores.

Tracked crisis context

Cuba has no dedicated crisis tracker; the 14 trackers cover selected crises. That is a coverage limit, not a statement about risk.

Reading limits

Evidence comes from the August 29, 2026 snapshot. Cuba coverage is 58% with imputation share 17%. No score is published.

Questions about Cuba

What is Cuba's Country Instability Index?

Cuba's Country Instability Index is 36/100 (Normal), unchanged over a 24-hour comparison window, as of Sep 28, 2026, 4:51 AM UTC.

What is Cuba's resilience score?

No resilience score or rank is published for Cuba. Cuba's published rank would require coverage of at least 65%, no low-confidence flag, and either a population of at least 200,000 or coverage of at least 85%. Low confidence for Cuba means coverage falls below 55% or imputation share exceeds 40%.

What evidence is available for Cuba?

Observed evidence is present for Border security (100%), Cyber and digital capacity (100%), Governance and institutions (100%), Health and public services (100%), Import concentration (100%), and State continuity (100%). Input coverage is 58% and imputation share is 17%.

How should readers use Cuba's page?

Use the evidence inventory and nearest ranked comparators with the live monitor. A missing score does not mean risk is absent.

How to read this page

The 0-100 index records the August 29, 2026 snapshot. See the Country Resilience Index methodology for dimensions, sources and confidence rules. Published revisions that affect Cuba are in the corrections log.

This 2026-08-29 snapshot applies domain design weights inside pillar aggregation. Earlier published CRI numbers used coverage-only member aggregation and are not directly comparable.

Use this dated reference with the live map for active alerts, conflict, market and energy signals. Neither score on this page is a forecast; where World Monitor does forecast, the graded record is on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Download: resilience.json. Source: World Monitor Country Resilience Index snapshot, August 29, 2026. Methodology: Country Resilience Index.

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