What intelligence layers are tracked by WorldMonitor?

WorldMonitor tracks 12 real-time layers: conflicts (ACLED), military bases, nuclear facilities, sanctions, severe weather, Canadian alerts, macroeconomic indicators, maritime AIS waterways, internet outages, military aviation, natural disasters, and the Pentagon Pizza Index.

How does ramongitau.uk integrate WorldMonitor global threat data?

Ramon Gitau AI autonomous agents (@compliance-sentinel and @financial-actuary) ingest real-time WorldMonitor event streams for SASRA/KMRC stress testing and regulatory threat analysis.

Strategic Risk - World Monitor

The Strategic Risk system provides a composite dashboard for global risk triage. Its server-published headline score is a top-5 Country Instability Index (CII) roll-up, while the panel layers additional convergence, infrastructure, theater posture, breaking-news, sanctions, and radiation-watch context around that headline.

Strategic Risk Overview

The Strategic Risk Overview displays the server-side Strategic Risk headline and nearby operational context from the browser panel.

Server Score and Browser Fallback (0-100)

The displayed/server headline score comes from GetRiskScores.strategicRisks[0]. The server derives it from the weighted top 5 CII countries by combinedScore, not from the additive panel context formula:

topScores = top 5 countries by combinedScore
weights = [1.00, 0.85, 0.70, 0.55, 0.40]
weightedAvg = sum(topScores[i] * weights[i]) / sum(weights)
headline = round(weightedAvg * 0.70 + 15)

See CII Risk Scoring Methodology for the exact top-5 window, scale factor, floor, and severity bands. When cached server scores are unavailable, the browser can render a local fallback overview that combines map-side convergence, infrastructure, theater posture, breaking news, sanctions, radiation-watch signals, and the locally available CII summary:

compositeScore =
    convergenceScore * 0.30
  + ciiRiskScore     * 0.50
  + infraScore       * 0.20
  + theaterBoost
  + breakingBoost
  + sanctionsScore
  + radiationScore

Those additive terms are local fallback context, not the server Strategic Risk contract. sanctionsScore is capped at 10 from new sanctions entries, largest-country entry volume, and sanctioned vessel/aircraft counts; radiationScore is capped at 12 from radiation-watch spikes, elevated readings, and corroborated observations, reduced by low-confidence or conflicting observations.

Risk Levels

The browser panel and the server API intentionally expose two related but different level schemes for the same 0-100 headline score. Panel-visible display labels use the same five CII-aligned bands as country risk rows:

Headline score	Panel label	Meaning
>=81	Critical	Active crisis or major escalation
66-80	High	Significant instability requiring close monitoring
51-65	Elevated	Above-normal activity patterns
31-50	Normal	Baseline geopolitical activity
<31	Low	Unusually quiet period

Server/on-wire enum labels remain the three-tier StrategicRisk.level contract returned by GetRiskScores:

Headline score	`StrategicRisk.level`	Meaning
70-100	`SEVERITY_LEVEL_HIGH`	Multiple converging crises
40-69	`SEVERITY_LEVEL_MEDIUM`	Heightened global tension
0-39	`SEVERITY_LEVEL_LOW`	Lower global strategic pressure

API clients should treat StrategicRisk.level as the server severity enum and the Strategic Risk panel label as a display mapping of StrategicRisk.score.

Unified Alert System

Alerts from all modules are merged using temporal and spatial deduplication:

Time window: Alerts within 2 hours may be merged
Distance threshold: Alerts within 200km may be merged
Same country: Alerts affecting the same country may be merged

When alerts merge, they become composite alerts that show the full picture:

Type: Composite Alert
Title: Convergence + CII + Infrastructure: Ukraine
Components:
  - Geographic Convergence: 4 event types in Kyiv region
  - CII Spike: Ukraine +15 points (Critical)
  - Infrastructure: Black Sea cables at risk
Priority: Critical

Alert Priority

Alert priority is separate from the server Strategic Risk High/Medium/Low bands. References to Critical and High CII below use the Country Instability Index country-score bands documented in Country Instability Index.

Priority	Criteria
Critical	CII country Critical band (81-100), convergence has 4+ types or score ≥90, cascade critical impact, high-impact radiation/sanctions signal
High	CII country High band (66-80) or ≥30-point CII move, convergence has 3+ types or score ≥70, cascade affecting ≥5 countries
Medium	CII country Elevated band or ≥15-point CII move, convergence score ≥50, cascade medium impact or ≥3 countries
Low	Minor changes and low-impact events

Trend Detection

Country-level CII rows track approximate 24-hour movement through dynamicScore:

dynamicScore is a signed delta from -100 to 100 against the nearest valid prior CII snapshot.
Positive values mean the score rose, negative values mean it fell, and 0 means stable or no valid prior snapshot.
Trend labels use the server deadband: greater than +1 is rising, less than -1 is falling, and values from -1 through +1 remain stable.

The server-published global StrategicRisk headline is different: it currently sets trend to stable while publishing the top-5 CII roll-up score. If cached server scores are unavailable, the browser fallback computes its own escalating/stable/de-escalating panel trend from local additive context; that fallback trend is a UI continuity signal, not the authoritative server Strategic Risk trend contract.

Pentagon Pizza Index (PizzINT)

The dashboard integrates real-time foot traffic data from strategic locations near government and military facilities. This “Pizza Index” concept, tracking late-night activity spikes at restaurants near the Pentagon, Langley, and other facilities, provides an unconventional indicator of crisis activity.

How It Works

The system aggregates percentage-of-usual metrics from monitored locations:

Locations: Fast food, pizza shops, and convenience stores near Pentagon, CIA, NSA, State Dept, and other facilities
Aggregation: Activity percentages are averaged, capped at 100%
Spike Detection: Locations exceeding their baseline are flagged

DEFCON-Style Alerting

Aggregate activity maps to a 5-level readiness scale:

Level	Threshold	Label	Meaning
DEFCON 1	≥85%	Maximum Activity	Maximum readiness; crisis response active
DEFCON 2	70% – 84%	High Activity	High activity; significant event underway
DEFCON 3	50% – 69%	Elevated Activity	Elevated; above-normal operations
DEFCON 4	25% – 49%	Above Normal	Increased vigilance
DEFCON 5	<25%	Normal Activity	Normal peacetime operations

World Monitor Tension Pairs

The indicator also displays World Monitor tension scores computed independently from GDELT event exports:

Pair	Monitored Relationship
USA ↔ Russia	Primary nuclear peer adversary
Russia ↔ Ukraine	Active conflict zone
USA ↔ China	Economic and military competition
USA ↔ Iran	Middle East regional tensions

Each pair shows:

Current tension score (World Monitor’s normalized score)
7-day trend (rising, falling, stable)
Percentage change from previous period

This provides context for the activity levels. See the country-pair tension section below for scoring and data-availability rules.

Backed by endpoints

Surface	Endpoint	Notes
Pentagon Pizza Index + GDELT pairs	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/get-pizzint-status`	Reads pizza activity and, with `include_gdelt=true`, independently computed World Monitor tension pairs.
GPS/GNSS interference	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/list-gps-interference`	Reads normalized GPSJam Redis keys, with optional `region` filtering.
OREF alerts for CII context	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/list-oref-alerts`	Direct RPC for live or history OREF data; see Israel Sirens for the panel relay path.
Security advisories	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/list-security-advisories`	Redis-backed advisory feed used by CII boosts and floors.
Country energy profile	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/get-country-energy-profile`	Country-level energy context for country deep dives and strategic risk analysis.
Energy shock scenario	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/compute-energy-shock`	On-demand country + chokepoint product supply shock.

World Monitor country-pair tensions

Tensions use GDELT event exports, not PizzINT’s GPR scale. The materializer counts both actor directions for US–Russia, Russia–Ukraine, US–China, and US–Iran. China–Taiwan and US–Venezuela did not meet the initial 20 conflict events/day measurement threshold and are excluded. No GDELT query API is used. For each UTC day, conflict intensity is the sum of NumMentions × max(0, −GoldsteinScale) for events in QuadClass 3 or 4. The daily bucket also retains total events, conflict events, and tone sum/count (mean tone is their quotient). Events are assigned to their export cohort’s UTC day; the current partial day is excluded from scoring. The score is the percentile of the last seven completed days’ mean intensity against the pair’s 90 completed daily intensities: 100 × (days below the mean + 0.5 × days equal to it) / 90. A non-flat history’s maximum scores 100; a flat history scores 50. This measures relative event intensity, not the probability of conflict. The last seven days must contain at least 140 conflict events (20 × 7). All 90 days must have all 96 export cohorts. Missing or partial days do not count as quiet days. During initial history collection, or when these conditions fail, the stored insufficientPairs lists the pair; the API omits its numeric score and the panel shows Insufficient data. Change is 100 × (recent seven-day mean − preceding seven-day mean) / preceding mean. The trend rises above +10%, falls below −10%, and is stable at the boundaries. A zero preceding mean with positive recent intensity has no finite percentage change, so that pair is also withheld. Two zero means give a zero change. The independent gdelt:bulk:dyad-tension:v1 snapshot retains 90 completed days plus today’s bucket, with a 92-day TTL and its own replay cursor. Health checks seed-meta:gdelt:bulk:dyad-tension at a 45-minute budget for the 15-minute worker. The API withholds snapshots older than 45 minutes even though history remains stored. Responses that include tensions bypass HTTP caches, and the browser does not retain tension responses for cache fallback. Healthy ingestion does not mean that the 90-day scoring history is ready. The probe stays pending until the first successful data and metadata publication sets its durable activation marker. It then enforces freshness permanently. Pizza outages do not hide available tensions. Each worker run also repairs history. It walks the past days in the window that are missing or lack any of their 96 cohorts, newest first, and rebuilds up to two of them from that day’s GDELT export files. A rebuilt day replaces the stored day. It is never added to it, so the partial first day of collection counts once. Only days before the replay cursor’s day are repaired, so the live merge never adds to a rebuilt day. The worker downloads a day only when the GDELT master file list names all 96 of its exports, and checks each file against the listed size and MD5. A day with an upstream gap is skipped without downloading it and does not count toward the two. A day whose download or verification fails is recorded in the snapshot’s repairFailures and skipped for six hours, so it cannot hold the run’s slots while older days wait. A later successful rebuild clears its record. The repair has a 60-second budget per run. When the budget runs out, the worker aborts in-flight downloads and starts no new ones. A failure or an overrun keeps the days that finished and never delays or fails the live publication. An empty window fills in about 45 runs, about 11 hours. News clusters are automatically enriched with nearby critical infrastructure. When a story mentions a geographic region, the system identifies relevant assets within 600km, providing immediate operational context.

Asset Types

Type	Source	Examples
Pipelines	88 global routes	Nord Stream, Keystone, Trans-Siberian
Undersea Cables	86 major cables	TAT-14, SEA-ME-WE, Pacific Crossing
AI Datacenters	Epoch AI registry	Azure East US, GCP Council Bluffs
Military Bases	226 installations	Ramstein, Diego Garcia, Guam
Nuclear Facilities	100+ sites	Power plants, weapons labs, enrichment

Location Inference

The system infers the geographic focus of news stories through:

Keyword matching: Headlines are scanned against hotspot keyword lists (e.g., “Taiwan” maps to Taiwan Strait hotspot)
Confidence scoring: Multiple keyword matches increase location confidence
Fallback to conflicts: If no hotspot matches, active conflict zones are checked

Distance Calculation

Assets are ranked by Haversine distance from the inferred location:

d = 2r × arcsin(√(sin²(Δφ/2) + cos(φ₁) × cos(φ₂) × sin²(Δλ/2)))

Up to 3 assets per type are displayed, sorted by proximity.

Example Context

A news cluster about “pipeline explosion in Germany” would show:

Pipelines: Nord Stream (23km), Yamal-Europe (156km)
Cables: TAT-14 landing (89km)
Bases: Ramstein (234km)

Clicking an asset zooms the map to its location and displays detailed information.

Server-Side Risk Score API

Strategic risk and Country Instability Index (CII) scores are pre-computed server-side rather than calculated in the browser. This eliminates the “cold start” problem where new users would see no data while the system accumulated enough information to generate scores.

How It Works

The GetRiskScores RPC handler (get-risk-scores.ts):

Fetches recent protest/riot/battle/explosion/civilian-violence data from ACLED.
Fetches auxiliary sources from Redis, including UCDP conflicts, outages, climate, cyber threats, fires, GPS jamming, Iran events, OREF alerts, advisories, displacement, classified news summaries, aviation alerts, earthquakes, sanctions, and military/AIS CII aggregates.
Computes CII v8 scores for 31 Tier-1 countries using the shared coefficient table documented in CII Risk Scoring Methodology.
Derives Strategic Risk from the weighted top 5 CII scores.
Caches results in Redis with versioned live and stale keys tied to the current CII formula version.

CII Score Calculation

Each country’s score combines a static baseline (40%) with a dynamic event score (60%), plus supplemental boosts and floors. Baseline Risk (0-50 points): Static geopolitical risk reflecting structural fragility. The canonical per-country values live in CII Risk Scoring Methodology. Event Score blends four sub-components:

Sub-component	Weight	Scoring
Unrest	25%	ACLED protests/riots, protest fatalities, high-severity unrest, and outage severity
Conflict	30%	Weighted ACLED battles/explosions/civilian violence, fatalities, Iran strike severity, and OREF alert pressure
Security	20%	Military flights, military vessels, aviation closures/delays, and GPS/GNSS jamming
Information	25%	Classified news headlines and country-attributed threat summaries

Floors (minimum score guarantees):

Floor type	Threshold	Trigger
UCDP active war	>= 70	2-year Tier-1 UCDP total deaths > 1000 or event count > 100
UCDP minor conflict	>= 50	2-year Tier-1 UCDP event count > 10 below the war thresholds
Advisory do-not-travel	>= 60	Live advisory feed when present; otherwise embedded State Department fallback table
Advisory reconsider	>= 50	Live advisory feed when present; otherwise embedded State Department fallback table

Supplemental Boosts: Advisory boost (+15/+10/+5), OREF blend boost for IL (+15 active + history tiers), climate (+15 max), cyber (+12 max), fires (+8 max), displacement (+20 max), news urgency (+5 max), earthquakes (+25 max), sanctions (+14 max), and AIS disruptions (+10 max). Advisory outputs expose both advisoryLevel and advisoryProvenance on each CiiScore. advisoryProvenance is live when the score used the seeded advisory feed, fallback when it used the embedded State Department fallback table, and absent when no advisory level affected boosts or floors.

Event Significance Multipliers

Events in some countries carry more global significance than others:

Multiplier	Countries	Rationale
3.0x	North Korea	Any visible unrest is highly unusual
2.0-2.5x	China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Cuba	Authoritarian states suppress protests
1.5-1.8x	Taiwan, Pakistan, Myanmar, Venezuela, UAE	Regional flashpoints
1.0-1.2x	Mexico, Turkey	Moderate significance
0.5-0.8x	UK, France, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, Israel, India, Brazil	Protests are routine or events already captured by floors
0.3x	US	Very high observability and high-volume domestic reporting require stronger dampening

Strategic Risk Derivation

The composite strategic risk score is computed as a weighted average of the top 5 CII scores:

Weights: [1.0, 0.85, 0.70, 0.55, 0.40] (total: 3.5)
Strategic Risk = (Σ CII[i] × weight[i]) / 3.5 × 0.7 + 15

The top countries contribute most heavily, with diminishing influence for lower-ranked countries.

Data Sources

Source	Redis Key	Used For
ACLED	Fetched live via API	Protests, riots, battles, explosions, civilian violence, fatalities
UCDP	`conflict:ucdp-events:v1`	War/minor conflict floors
Outages	`infra:outages:v1`	Unrest outage boost
Climate	`climate:anomalies:v2`	Climate severity boost
Cyber	`cyber:threats-bootstrap:v2`	Severity-weighted cyber boost
Fires	`wildfire:fires:v1`	Severity-weighted wildfire boost
GPS Jamming	`intelligence:gpsjam:v2`	Security score
Military CII	Relay/seeded military aggregate	Security score and AIS disruption boost
Aviation Alerts	Seeded aviation disruption data	Security score
Iran Events	`conflict:iran-events:v1`	Strike boost with severity weighting
OREF Alerts	`relay:oref:history:v1`	IL conflict boost and blend boost
News Threats	Classified headline summaries	Information score and news urgency boost
Displacement	Humanitarian displacement aggregate	Displacement boost
Earthquakes	Earthquake feed	Earthquake boost
Sanctions	Sanctions country aggregate	Sanctions boost
Security advisories	`intelligence:advisories:v1` plus embedded fallback table	Advisory boost/floor with `advisoryProvenance`

Fallback Behavior

When upstream data is unavailable (API errors, rate limits):

Stale cache: Return the latest versioned stale risk-score payload when available.
Baseline fallback: Return scores using static baselines and available floors when no usable live or stale payload exists.

The RPC exposes the fallback state on GetRiskScoresResponse: stale-cache responses set degraded=true and stale=true; cold baseline-only responses set degraded=true and stale=false. Fresh/cache-hit responses set both flags to false. The relay CII warm-ping loop is active in scripts/ais-relay.cjs: it calls /api/intelligence/v1/get-risk-scores every 8 minutes, lets the RPC handler refresh live/stale cache state, and writes seed-meta:intelligence:risk-scores for health monitoring when scores are returned. That seed-meta recordCount is real-time signal-density coverage, not raw feed availability: it counts the score-relevant Tier-1 conflict (ACLED or UCDP), news, and cyber signal families present in the CII refresh. Quiet-but-fresh real-time feeds can therefore produce COVERAGE_PARTIAL; source-specific freshness remains the feed-heartbeat view.

Getting Started

Usage

Platform & Features

Intelligence & Analysis

Workflows

Map Layers

Finance

Panels — AI & PRO

Panels — Data & Tracking

Panels — Catalogues

Desktop Application

MCP & Integrations

HTTP API

Developer Guide

Company

Legal

Strategic Risk

Strategic Risk Overview

Server Score and Browser Fallback (0-100)

Risk Levels

Unified Alert System

Alert Priority

Trend Detection

Pentagon Pizza Index (PizzINT)

How It Works

DEFCON-Style Alerting

World Monitor Tension Pairs

Backed by endpoints

World Monitor country-pair tensions

Asset Types

Location Inference

Distance Calculation

Example Context

Server-Side Risk Score API

How It Works

CII Score Calculation

Event Significance Multipliers

Strategic Risk Derivation

Data Sources

Fallback Behavior

​Strategic Risk Overview

​Server Score and Browser Fallback (0-100)

​Risk Levels

​Unified Alert System

​Alert Priority

​Trend Detection

​Pentagon Pizza Index (PizzINT)

​How It Works

​DEFCON-Style Alerting

​World Monitor Tension Pairs

​Backed by endpoints

​World Monitor country-pair tensions

​Related Assets

​Asset Types

​Location Inference

​Distance Calculation

​Example Context

​Server-Side Risk Score API

​How It Works

​CII Score Calculation

​Event Significance Multipliers

​Strategic Risk Derivation

​Data Sources

​Fallback Behavior

Strategic Risk Overview

Server Score and Browser Fallback (0-100)

Risk Levels

Unified Alert System

Alert Priority

Trend Detection

Pentagon Pizza Index (PizzINT)

How It Works

DEFCON-Style Alerting

World Monitor Tension Pairs

Backed by endpoints

World Monitor country-pair tensions

Related Assets

Asset Types

Location Inference

Distance Calculation

Example Context

Server-Side Risk Score API

How It Works

CII Score Calculation

Event Significance Multipliers

Strategic Risk Derivation

Data Sources

Fallback Behavior